Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
The strong opening seems to have attracted selling but the market has been attempting to be remain steady all morning. Yesterday, aside to the 119.90 print, 120.00 was impenetrable. It’s possible that the impact of the negative COT may be over and the market can resume its upward trend. Option expiration may also be a consideration as 120.00 seems to be providing a level of support. As reported yesterday, southern Brazil is preparing their warning system in anticipation of winter thereby shifting attention of the market from production estimates to the imminent colder weather. On the negative side the $ remains strong and systems reversal may be triggered if the market eases below yesterday’s lows. We will see what 8:00 brings as yesterday there was a constant flow of selling, possibly a spec group, and constant buying, assumingly systems, together with commercial buying below 121.00. Bids are still plentiful on the way down as last week’s sellers are today’s buyers. The Real May be a negative factor but it appears that it’s value is more contingent on the $ then on anything specific to Brazil. This morning the USDBRL is 3,5507 -.0018. COP is 2830.30 +10.20. The MEX has also been climbing, possibly because of trade agreement anticipation. After a recent low of 18.00 it is now 19.6113. The ¥ is higher otherwise all currencies are lower than the $. Bond futures are inactive and flat. Metals are lower and on the soft side. Oil is also down today, as are equities. Sugar and cocoa are around unchanged and cotton is higher.
RC was closed yesterday and, amazingly, is unchanged from Friday’s close as the arb value has dropped to 38.46. Spreads there are on the soft side but still at a premium.