Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
For me, what is 1.20 ?? It is more or less the median price over the last several months. To me if the momentum increases on the downside yes, I would go short. An the question still stands, where do you sell if you only buy breaks? If one is looking only for the HR , then a nice scalp trade was missed by taking advantage of the signs we were given in the 1.24-1.25 area. I don't disagree with your market analysis, its good. I just approach the market in a different way and feel that waiting around for the "potential" scenario distracts me from what is actually happening on a smaller time frame. Again, options allow one to participate on an upside (surprise) explosion while still taking advantage of all the downside potential the market may present. We currently have a fairly easy 5 cent push to the downside in about 2.5 trading days. THink about the euphoria the forum would express on 5 cents higher ....just saying, the market has ample opportunities no matter what POTENTIAL (I emphasize potential bc its been this way for a long time) storm may be brewing in the background.
One last point, keep in mind, seasonally speaking, May also has a lot of POTENTIAL to be a short term top bc of the pressure that generally ensues as the new crop (in this case large crop) puts on the market.