Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading

Coffee Traders Discussion Forum

Coffee Traders' Forum

Grain Complex Update

Excluding Brazilian corn, the U.S. and other key global growing area weather has turned crop friendly.

U.S. corn pricing competitive & exports remain robust. Energy outlook is also positive for corn and bean oil.

U.S. wheat is priced 20-40 cents over world cash.

U.S. bean stocks are at a record high.

Trade worried about Chinese bean cancellations.

Defacto embargo with China already in place.

Unless a trade deal is consummated, unlikely at the moment, new Chinese purchases can’t reach the mainland before the new 25% tariff kicks in. As a result, there aren’t any.

U.S. agricultural products are already being held at port and subject to unreasonable inspections not applicable to other origins.

The funds are tooooooooo long the grain complex, excluding bean oil and oats.

Prices & currency fluctuations practically guarantee a big increase in Latin American corn & bean acreage next year. The Chinese will also plant more beans.

Continued U.S. dollar strength is not price friendly for commodities.

Commodity trading is always risky, but long bean oil, oats & corn on breaks against sales of beans, meal and wheat on pops make sense.