Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
The production of coffee in Brazil has a characteristic bienniality, the Brazilian coffee cultivation of Arabicas is extremely efficient and demanding, because it produces above the world average, but for that to happen it is necessary that the climate corresponds and helps. So the only chance of a big variation is the weather factor, and we're always monitoring whether these weather conditions are favorable or not. So we have frost in winter, and we can also have dry.
At the moment we have a first quarter with below average rainfall, and in April it rained less than average and poorly distributed in early April. We are entering the second quarter, and usually it is a dry quarter, so the logic leads us to believe that running the normal from now on, we will arrive in September with a marked water deficit and the plants will be quite stressed. My question, if this scenario happens, will we have the same biannuality of the previous years?