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IBGE: New Production Estimate '18'19

IBGE Increases Brazil Coffee Crop Estimate by 4.4%

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has forecast production for Brazil’s 2018-2019 crop at 55.3 million 60-kg bags, up 4.4% from their previous estimate of 53 million bags. Average yield increased 4.7% as the wetter climate benefited crop in the major producing states.

Arabica coffee production is now pegged at 42.1 million bags, up 3.4% from the previous estimate of 40.9 million.

São Paulo updated its data, estimating a production of 6.0 million bags, an increase of 32.1%, based on higher average yield (up 31.3%). In Bahia, the production estimate fell 2.8% due to a revaluation in yield. There was an increase of 27.2% in the area planted to Arabica coffee in the state, with 25,000 hectares being incorporated. However, most of these should only begin to produce in the coming years. Rio de Janeiro also reported a 6.7% drop in the estimate of Arabica coffee, due to a 4.4% reduction in yield and a 2.2% reduction in the area to be harvested.

For Robusta (conillon), production is now pegged at 13.2 million 60-kg bags, an increase of 7.7% in relation the previous estimate. The area to be harvested fell by 1.5%, however, the average yield increased by 9.3%. Rondônia, the second largest producer, with 2.4 million bags, re-evaluated its production, estimating an increase of 67.6%, reflecting the average yield (increase of 79.9%), while the area to be harvested fell 6.8%. In Bahia, the production estimate fell 3.0%, reflecting reductions of 2.2% in the area to be harvested and 0.8% in the average yield.

Alexis Rubinstein

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