Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
I think Wheatsoy is overstating frost risk and consequence. The huge shorts have demonstrated good counter by longs as if coordinated. A great deal of balanced positioning. We had bizzarre moves in 1994 but it was a different market not electronic. Unpredictable ? Perhaps but recent history says a calmer market. Gaps occurred much more before and were larger even without weather events anyone recall that ?
Ok so a severe cold snap hits Minas, what could be the loss ? 8-10 million ? So what out of a potential 55 million and crops as large elsewhere that continous 2.5 million from Brazil on a monthly basis don’t matter or cause a huge drawdown.
I will be more bullish the market when everyone stops being hopeful on frosts, stop talking drought in April, and producers give signs of drastic input and husbandry cuts because of liw prices. With the Real at 3.60 to the dollar is Brazil hurting ?
Prices will shoot up when the industry sees threats of curtailed production.