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Weekly Short Report Terra Forte

Dear friends,

Beautiful seminar at Guaruja where we had a chance to talk with many old friends from the trade and industry. Excellent debates and presentations from Cooxupe, Neumann, Volcafe, Olam showing their views of the market. Forgive us if we did not include all.
No big surprises and still a big gap on crop numbers persists with a 55 to 65 million bags range for the market to digest.

The huge gap above is impeding market to flow because buyers are basing their buying differentials on the higher end of the estimate and sellers on the lower end of expectations.

What buyers in our opinion are forgetting is that Brazil will start the new crop with basically zero stocks of current crop and with 20% already sold. Therefore the first 9 to 10 million bags are not fresh sales, producers will focus on deliver those coffees sold at very high prices and only after that we are going to see fresh offers in the market which we believe will take place by late August onwards.
It is like braking a vessel, it takes long to stop however it will take long also to gain speed.

Weather has been dry since April on Arabica regions helping harvesting activities and rainy at Conillon areas delaying it.

Wishing you a nice weekend
Terra Forte Trading Desk