Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Philly, I love you too LOL !!!
But my friend, july calls stand little chance of enjoying a weather event. Expiration will do them in before any weather event takes them to the money.
Also, given the current abundant supply from Honduras and others and huge consumer stocks, the impact on supply from a freeze is tamed severely. Add to this the fact that south Minas and Sao Paulo now comprise a lower percentage of total coffee output out of Brazil. Year after year I marvel at how resilient Braazilian coffee crops are to either cold weather or drought. You might have a severe freeze and find the market up only 20 cents instead of 45-45 cents compared to 1994. Look beyond just past experience from 24 years ago. The current supply demand scenario is totally different.
The above is not to say a severe freeze would not give you $2.00 or above coffee. it is just that I seriously think that it would take quite a few days to get there instead of a huge blow overnight. Naturally with trees wiped out farmers there would need higher prices to recover plantations which is what the industry would want. How we get to 2.00 is a different story me thinks.