Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
The map shown below is pretty simplistic on purpose to explain what is currently going on in the southern hemishpere. using the KISS principle, all you need to look at is the benign zonal flow depicted by the horizontal 540--or 5400 meter 500 millibar height--line denoted in black. Everything below it is freezing air which would cause a freeze.
In order for a freeze in southern Brazil, the first requirement is for this zonal flow to ondulate sinusoidaly and have this 540 line shoot up into the tropics into coffee areas of South Minas. This line even in the heart of winter will NEVER move north in zonal flow. Instead on a period of negative Antartic oscillation (ondulation) there would be a small chance of this line shooting far enough north into 23 degree south latitude. What about the longitude ? it has to hit precisely on coffee areas that is a bit too much asking. If it hits 23 south but off east or west of coffee it is no good.
Antartic oscillation went through a period of negative readings during most of the month of April. In the second chart of this index in my following post a value of minus two (-2) on the index was attained. For severe ondulation needed to get the 540 line far enough north we need a value of about minus 4 (-4). You can see in the index chart that positive values of plus four were almost attained in January. We need it the other way around in the short days between June 15 and July 31st. Current ensemble model outlooks are mixed, with a couple predicting minus 2.5 for the second half of May. June ? a big unknown just yet. We can, however, affirm that the La Niña event has officially ended, and La Niña has a greater chance of producing these big oscillations that we need for frost.
Currently, I cannot be bullish on frost because all my evidence points otherwise. I might agree with Wheatsoy´s outlook later on but not with current tools.