Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading

Coffee Traders Discussion Forum

Coffee Traders' Forum

COT Comment *PIC*

Greetings CTF,

Last week I wrote in my comment that we needed a continuation of preceeding week's strong move of the same magnitude to confirm market reversal. Well, it did not happen, changes:
- hedgers (in red) cut 8,400 longs and 4,700 shorts. Net - 3,700 to the short side;
- non-hedgers (in orange) cut 5,400 longs and 8,400 shorts. Net - 3,000 to the long side;
- managed money (in yellow) cut 3,500 longs and 8,300 shorts. Net - 4,800 to the long side.
1 fund left bulls, 4 funds left bears.

Net position indexes (in green) did follow the pattern of preceeding week but moves were very slow. Judging from last Wed-Fri it is hard to say whether move up ended or corrected just to resume further advance - it may look like that Wed-Fri form another bottom on daily charts. So we need more time. Let's give it another week.

OI index (in blue) dropped as we see players cutting their positions across the board.

Participation index (in purple) is the same as last week.

So the key point is whether coffee just formed a bottom or it is just a brief stop on further way down. On one hand we have new crop, on the other winter is coming.