Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Terra Forte is right.
Trade is basing low bids on a 65 million bag crop and reasonably firm offers on a 55 million bag crop.
20% of new crop sold.
Producer stocks in Brazil are non-existent.
Exporters are short.
Pressure, if any, unlikely until the fall.
$1.36 gap will be filled.
The $1.45 50% retracement level will follow.
When is of course the looming question.
Higher prices will require weather event which may or may not happen. Again, IT MAY NOT HAPPEN.
Large fund & commercial short positions will fuel rallies.
Rather than single out any post, traders would be wise to avoid spurious correlations, conspiracy theories and sensationalism. Would also stick to simple charts, tools and rules. Simple is good. SIMPLE IS GOOD.
Ignoring currencies, NY KC has little to do with other commodities. Given the strong U.S economy and the series of interest rate hikes ahead, bullish dollar momentum should continue. Don’t know what to think about the Brazilian REAL nor do I care what FX voices are forecasting.
Ignoring a weather or similar event, SIMPLE CHARTS, TOOLS & RULES are the key to profitability. If you think tooooooo much, you will change your mind every five minutes.You will also always think of a reason why your gut reaction won't work. As someone else said, analysis/paralysis.