Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading


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Coffee Traders' Forum

U.S. Grain Trade Tensions With China

• Trade Tensions With China Unresolved

• De Facto Embargo Already In Place

• U.S. Vessels Held Up In Chinese Ports Due To Lengthy Inspections Not Applicable To Other Origins

• No/Few New Chinese Sales Re Fear Of 25% Tariff

• Trade Worried About Cancellation Of Record High Outstanding Export Sales

• New Trade Talks With Chinese Start This Week

• Tariffs Likely To Be Postponed

• Futures Likely To Pop Off Postponement

• Trump Talking Trade Directly With Chinese

• A Trade Solution - A Dynamic Not Being Discussed By Anyone - Would Be Unexpected & Send Futures Sharply Higher

• NAFTA Deal Seems Close (U.S. is the world’s largest corn exporter & Mexico is our largest customer)

On another note, the funds are too long meal, corn & the wheat complex. Commercials are record short in corn and near record short in meal. However, the funds liquidated 50,000 of their net long bean position last week. In other words, the long fund bean position is now manageable. Complex should bottom sometime during early week trading. Tuesday's COT likely to be friendly as well.