Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading


Coffee Traders Discussion Forum

Coffee Traders' Forum

OI/Market (Photonegative) *PIC*

The big increase in the OI on a down market took place in every month, both as outright and EFP, representing new fund selling and new commercial buying. There are several warnings on CTF that are well justified. There are bearish technicals, USDBRL is 3.6649 +.0428, DX is +.73, puts are being bought and calls being sold. All good reasons for the market to collapse. Reality however is that hundreds of stops get touched off and the market moves 1 tic, 5 points. Reality is also that commercials continue to buy endlessly because of options and consumer need anticipation. The OI dropped as the market rose, or was unchanged, as fund shorts bought from old and new commercials. Traders were feverishly bullish ignoring warning signals. The OI is now dropping as the market is weakening. It’s down 90 points with all the bearish signals mentioned. I admit that it’s scary to go long and the market continues to feel heavy but are we to ignore this ever-repeating pattern?