Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
As already reported before, the April and May weather has been erratic, ie, the rains were much lower than the historic for this period.
Thus, a process of dehydration of the coffee trees began, leaving the leaves dry.
With the harvesting of the fruits of these trees, there will be a much greater fall of leaves by the mechanical harvesting process, whether it be manual or mechanized.
Anyway, the trees will be quite unfolded in mid-September and October.
We will have some consequences:
1) less flowers, because the branches will be drier
2) less glue of the flowering, because we will have less leaves, there is a realtion of flowering glues with lots of leaves.
3) there may be a greater miscarriage of fruits because there will be fewer leaves in the trees, thus less stored energy and less protection from the sun directly on the fruits.
So the intensity of the 3 factors above will depend on what will be the water defict in the soil and when the rains will return.
Definitely the 2019/20 crop of the Brazilian Arabica coffee will have a marked biennial, the normal is 20% of less coffee, example in 2018/19, 40 million bags, in 2019/20 the normal would be 32 million bags, but if this soil water deficit remains, or the production potential of Arabica coffee may fall.