Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Good post, but I have a comment. The endless selling by commercials helping to cap rallies has been going on for some time, but it has also been a bear market. My thoughts are that would change with a recognizable turn up in the market. Commercials who are short, would also cover, thus providing additional buying power. If the bottom becomes recognizable, a big if, why would any producer sell July NY KC futures below $1.20? Indeed, they wouldn't. No guarantees on the weather, but the drought in the Brazilian and Argentine corn country, Argentine beans as well, has nagged at me for months. The crop damage was real for sure. Some showers into the weekend expected in Brazil's Parana corn area, but forecasts are bone dry after that across all South America. Sometimes they are accurate and sometimes they aren't. The moisture deficit has been going on for some time now, but it hasn't been recognized by coffee market observers. It did not happen overnight. In any event, not married to anything because the charts, tools and rules drive profitability over time, assuming we follow them. For now, the dip back to the prior lows has checked the decline. If we pop, the last high of $125.95 on on 5/2 will be taken out as we head for that ominous gap and then a full 50% retracement of the break from $1.80 to $115.30. Everybody deserves a score. Go coffee bulls.